Your tip. Scientifically founded.
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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scie🉐ntists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincid🅠ence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a🐎 potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bund🌃esliga have about the same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1♌,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addi﷽tion to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time🌳 and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wins are based upon🐟 a one-goal-m𓃲argin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 75% of matches have a♏ winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the 🐽number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored ﷽than on average. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is especially 💯informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the numbಌer of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.
Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more informative for the sa🐭ke of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly𓆉 better conversion.
The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated🍌 with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal differe🗹nce increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal diffওerence that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The l𒀰onger the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performances of teams.
A football ꦅm🐟atch is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunit♒ies would perfe♎ctly predict the performance level.
The goal difference is determined b💯y effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on av🐭erage.
Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changeꦏs of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak&ldqu⛦o; is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does𒅌 not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is id🌌entical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astoniඣshingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect predicti🦄on of the second half of the season..
No. In fact only in half of the cases the best team wins an♛d becomes Ger🅰man champion at the end of the season.
No.🌌 Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is enough f🎶or today, we will let you know another rime.